China’s “Peace Disease”: Overrated or Achilles Heel?

In recent decades, the People’s Republic of China has emerged as a formidable global power, with economic, political, and military influence extending far beyond its borders. Yet, behind the impressive surface of modernization lies a critical vulnerability: what Chinese analysts themselves have termed the “Peace Disease” (和平病)—a condition brought on by decades of peace and untested military forces. While this term may sound benign, its implications for global security are anything but.

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Understanding “Peace Disease”

“Peace Disease” refers to the strategic, institutional, and psychological weaknesses that develop in a military which has not experienced real combat for a prolonged period. For China, the last major war was its ill-fated invasion of Vietnam in 1979. Since then, despite a massive overhaul of its military hardware, doctrine, and organizational structure, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) remains largely unblooded. As the War on the Rocks article “Ten Reasons Why China Will Have Trouble Fighting a Modern War” outlines, this lack of combat experience poses serious challenges.

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Institutional Inertia and Risk Aversion

The PLA is a highly bureaucratic institution, deeply intertwined with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This relationship has created an officer corps more loyal to political orthodoxy than to military effectiveness. Promotions are often based on political reliability rather than battlefield merit, and decision-making is centralized to a degree that stifles initiative—a severe liability in the chaos of modern warfare.

Moreover, the long period of peace has cultivated a culture of risk aversion. Chinese military exercises are tightly scripted and often fail to simulate the unpredictability and friction of real conflict. This undermines the development of adaptive leadership and unit-level autonomy, both of which are essential in high-tempo, multi-domain operations.

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Technological Overconfidence and Logistical Fragility

On paper, China fields an impressive array of weapons: stealth fighters, advanced naval platforms, anti-satellite capabilities, and a growing nuclear triad. However, much of this technological advancement remains untested under fire. Real-world combat introduces system failures, logistical strains, and human limitations that simulations cannot replicate.

Furthermore, the PLA has not had to conduct large-scale joint operations under combat conditions. Its logistical and command systems are largely unproven, especially in extended operations far from home soil—a major concern given its global ambitions and growing overseas footprint.

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Strategic Miscalculation and Global Risk

The most dangerous consequence of China’s Peace Disease is the risk of strategic miscalculation. A leadership emboldened by peacetime success may overestimate its capabilities in a crisis (a tendency it shares with the West), particularly in flashpoints like Taiwan, the South China Sea, or the Indian border. Without a clear-eyed understanding of its own limitations, China could initiate or escalate conflicts that spiral out of control.

This danger is amplified by a domestic narrative that emphasizes national rejuvenation and historical grievance. As China attempts to assert its influence regionally and globally, the pressure to back rhetoric with military action could lead it to undertake operations its military is not ready for—with potentially catastrophic consequences for global peace and stability.

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Conclusion: A Threat Hidden in Plain Sight

While much attention is given to China’s growing military power, the Peace Disease may be its Achilles’ heel. Ironically, it is this very weakness—combined with a desire to overcome it—that makes China’s rise so volatile. A powerful yet untested military led by a politically insulated leadership poses a risk not just to regional stability, but to the global order.

That said, sometimes quantity has a quality all its own, and China certainly has a lot of military power to throw around. And in a system governed by the CCP, their tolerance for mass casualties is likely significantly higher than that of the U.S. So they may well be willing to cast the die and take a chance on open warfare, especially for a prize as significant as Taiwan.

Therefore, te international community must remain vigilant. Deterrence, transparency, and strong alliances are critical to offsetting the dangers posed by China’s Peace Disease. The threat lies not only in what China can do, but in what it thinks it can do—and that difference could define the conflicts of the 21st century.

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Charles Faint served over 27 years in the US Army, which included seven combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan with various Special Operations Forces units and two stints as an instructor at the United States Military Academy at West Point. He also completed operational tours in Egypt, the Philippines, and the Republic of Korea and earned a Doctor of Business Administration from Temple University as well as a Master of Arts in International Relations from Yale University. He is the owner of The Havok Journal, and the views expressed herein are his own and do not reflect those of the US Government or any other person or entity.