What Happened to the ‘Red Wave’ in the 2022 Midterms

by Larry Schmidt

Despite only having been a close observer of political tensions and of media operations since the time of President George W. Bush (R-TX), Republican optimism leading up to the midterm elections was unlike anything I have ever seen before. This was confirmed by polling which I foolishly believed despite more than a decade of experience not trusting polls. After all, the polls were dead wrong in 2016 with President Trump’s election and consistently wrong anyway, to include the 2022 midterms (albeit wrong in the way that gave us non-poll believers hope). Although some polling outfits will always claim accuracy post-election, it is extremely difficult to sift through the massive amount of data and pick the accurate poll. Combine the previous thought on polling with the understanding that polls are meant to shape public opinion rather than reflect it and we are left with believable but inaccurate data in forecasting elections.

Over the last 22 months, the current regime under President Biden and a completely controlled Democrat Congress has a record of massive inflation, low labor participation, an economy currently in a recession, massive spending, record national debt, a hugely embarrassing withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Chicom aggression towards the island nation of Taiwan, higher taxes, North Korea launching missiles over Japan and other places, increase cyberattacks around the globe, the increased aggression of climate change activists, record numbers of migrants and drugs coming across the southern border, depletion of our strategic oil supply, degraded reputation around the globe to include Saudi Arabia and Israel, a reigniting of the Iranian nuclear deal and the Paris Climate Accords, record crime, lowest student scores on standardized testing, and the list continues. With the counter-political argument of Abortion being illegal because of President Trump’s supreme court, “Make America Great Again” is a radical political position, crime isn’t that bad, and January 6^th was worse than 9/11–It stands to reason that Republicans should have had a great election night.

However, that has not exactly panned out. The House will be in Republican control and the senate has been decided with a run-off in Georgia likely to keep the house a 50/50 split with Vice President Harris as the tie-breaking vote. But it was not nearly the ‘red wave’ that conservative pundits and liberal commentators were talking about in the lead-up. Despite the mainstream media doing everything they possibly could to discount the Democrat failures over a span of fewer than two years of control, they stuck to their guns of abortion issues, support for massive government spending, climate catastrophe, and how bad it is to be a Republican. It is unlikely the Republicans will gain much ground outside of the House. But on November 7^th, it would have appeared on conservative media that the election was merely a formality that had to be conducted on the way to a Republican rout.

What happened on November 8^th? First, election infrastructure favors Democrats in key states.  Election day has turned into election month, or even election six to eight weeks. Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, California, Virginia, and a host of other states maintain election laws that allow for mail-in voting, the use of questionable voting machines, and largely continue to practice COVID-era election practices. It is simply ridiculous that we do not know who is elected on election day. 

Unfortunately, these laws won’t be changed until Republicans win and enact changes to these laws.  Thus, the Republican Party needs to get to the proverbial battlefield and bring the proverbial ‘weapons’ of the day. Early voting campaigns must occur in the applicable states. If the Democrat Party in Pennsylvania sends out one million mail-in ballots, then the Republican Party needs to send out two million. It is time for Republicans to get on offense with election infrastructure. In a military operation, a tactical leader attempts to fight the enemy on his or her terms. However, in these cases in applicable states, the terms are already set and unable to be adjusted. Thus, we must provide ourselves with every other advantage possible and take the proverbial fight to the threat. 

Mitch McConnell, lovingly known as ‘The Turtle’ or ‘Cocaine Mitch’ also needs to update his outdated domestic political strategy. He literally pulled millions of dollars out of Arizona and other winnable states and planted it in Alaska, Nebraska, and North Carolina where Republican candidates would have won without the millions of McConnell-bucks. But when you are trying to retain your position of “Senate Minority Leader,” electing Murkowski (R-AK) pays more dividends than actually winning over 150 million plus American voters. 

Next, the data points to abortion playing a bigger role than anyone anticipated. Personally, I view a message of killing another person (especially a baby) as a losing message. Constitutionally, there is no right to abortion as the media and the Left would have you think. That’s why the decision to overturn Roe v Wade is legally sound in applying the 10^th amendment, which thereby leaves the issue of abortion up to the states, as a good one. However, it may have been a mobilizing factor for Democrat voters and the message of the red wave may have been a demobilizing factor for Republican voters. 

Something like 78% of Democrats in exit polling listed abortion as their number one issue. Republicans must face this issue head-on; there is no more time to play the classic republican card of hiding from social issues. I say that, but reluctantly also agree that Lindsey Graham is a political idiot. Why would you propose a 15-week ban on abortion in a Congress that won’t take up the issue, just to make headlines before an election? Mobilizing ‘suburban moms’ and women, who apparently want to kill their own children, to vote Democrat. Can anyone actually point to a ‘suburban mom’ who literally feels it is her “right” to kill children? Exit polling, right? The Left has turned everything into either a social or political issue thus, a strategy needs to be formed and an adjustment in messaging is likely the solution. Why not talk about the child’s right to life, make the exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother? Remove the federal government from the decision. All in all, if overturning of the Roe decision lost us the midterms, then so be it. I’ll make that trade any time.

Next, the elephant in the room: President Trump. His endorsed candidates did not perform well on a statewide or national basis. However, I think it is a mistake to say the candidates were too radical. The GOP needs to run America-first candidates. Running lukewarm Republicans is a recipe for disaster, depending on where they are running. Nationally speaking, running a half-Democrat is doomed for failure. Depending on the State or the congressional district though it may be acceptable. An America-first Republican will outperform a half-Democrat. 

Trump’s endorsement allowed the media to label them as “extreme-MAGA” or “election deniers” and all the other tag lines used in today’s media to muddy the waters against Republican candidates.  Candidate quality is not an issue in this election despite what you may have read or heard.  Pennsylvania elected a man to the Senate, the most deliberative body in the world, who can’t debate, not to mention an actual dead man to their state legislature. Nevertheless, it is time to consider the fact that Trump is likely not the man to take the Republican Party into 2024. 

The real point here is the GOP has to find a way to peel votes away from urban centers and thus Democrats, and not find an extra voter or two in rural counties. Rural counties are locked up, they will go Republican, and no more money needs to be spent there. The GOP needs to find a way to turn Philadelphia, Chicago, New York City, Washington D.C., Seattle, Denver, Los Angeles, Dallas, Tampa, Raleigh, Charlotte, Richmond, Buffalo, Hartford, Boston, Bangor, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Madison, Detroit, St. Louis, Minneapolis, etc, the list goes on… from 80/20, 90/10, Democrat routes to 60/40, 70/30 Democrat wins. 

The GOP does not need to win the cities, it just needs to shift the vote, and they simply need to move one or two hundred thousand people to either their side or to stay home. This can be done in a variety of ways, adjusting election laws are likely the easiest path to these adjustments in voter behavior, but they have to win first. A positive message, money, proper education of the voter and engagement with the inner city is required to win. President Trump, even though I think he is one of the greatest Presidents of all time, is so polarizing that he is unlikely to peel away the 100,000 votes needed to win.  Normally, I would say having 45% of the electorate willing to walk over hot coals to vote for you is a huge advantage. However, we learned from the 2020 election, that Democrats, or at least 55% of the electorate are not only willing to walk over hot coals to vote against Trump, but they are also likely willing to do whatever is necessary to defeat him. This includes adjusting election laws, throwing out court cases, and donating literally billions of dollars to meat puppets. 

Fourth, the burning question is, with everything as bad as it is, why would anyone vote for a Democrat? The answer has to do with how our values are being passed along from generation to generation. The mainstream media despite its overall low trust from the American people and low ratings continues to spread its tentacles across the country, spreading the influence of the Democrat Party narrative.  Nebraska just passed a $15 minimum wage, Montana voted down a right-to-life provision that would have required doctors to provide lifesaving care to a baby born after a failed abortion, and Kentucky voted down an amendment proposal that would have confirmed the state constitution does not include the right to abortion. The state education of our children has become a problem. Family values being passed on from grandparents to parents to children is not occurring. The destruction of the nuclear family is now front and center. In single-parent homes, the government, and thus the Democrat Party, is required to just make ends meet. Thus, education on these issues and values needs to occur.

The solution to all of this is a shift of or by the leadership of the GOP to the right. It is time we acknowledged that great things can and will occur under Republican leadership. That combined with an effective messaging campaign through whatever means necessary will lead the GOP out of the dark days that began with President Bush not knowing how to deal with the mainstream media arm of the Democrat Party and into unbeatable prosperity. If you own the narrative, you can thereby own the ‘environment.’ Trump was a master at this in 2016, but no longer. It is time to move on, current GOP leadership is behind the power curve, and it is time to get ahead of the curve and dictate where the curve goes. It will be difficult, nothing worth doing is ever easy. 

There were pockets of success for the Republican Party. Florida is the obvious example and look what Governor DeSantis did, he went to the Right. All the pockets of Republican success had a similar flavor. In New York, Arizona (ok not the best example, they lost, but so competitive it is worth mentioning), Governor Kemp in Georgia, Hershel Walker in a run-off (if he doesn’t run the Democrat wins 9 times out of 10, also the Democrats have spent hundreds of millions in Georgia), Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, General Buldoc in New Hampshire, North Carolina up and down the ticket all had varying degrees of pivoting to the right with success, despite not actually winning, some of these races were in play for the first time in decades. 

There is other good news, although the ‘red wave’ did not occur as predicted on the 8^th, it did not die.  Between 2010 and 2016 democrats lost 600 seats from local to federal levels of government. Prior to the 2020 Presidential election, Democrat power was the lowest it has been since before World War II, the red wave didn’t die on November 8^th, it has been ongoing since 2010, and thus reinvigorated. The fact is Democrat power is limited to their strongholds in urban areas, stronghold states, and currently Washington D.C. (but that may still change over the next month). During this period the tea party arose from the ashes of the 2008 elections and President Trump was elected with Republican majorities in both houses of Congress. 

The key point to understand is, moving to the center is not a winning philosophy. We must understand, you do not move to the center, you move the center to you. It is not time to lick our wounds, we haven’t lost, instead, the opposite is occurring, keep moving forward towards the sound of proverbial battle and thus the proverbial gunfire, which is happening literally and figuratively in the urban areas.

Yes, folks, the GOP must take a play from the Democrat playbook and double down. Hard to starboard (that’s right for people who don’t know), damn the torpedoes (that’s a metaphor for the media and ‘suburban moms’ who want to kill their own children), full bore, and into the abyss of American Greatness. 

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Larry is an avid observer of geopolitical events, enjoys the study of unconventional warfare, and is a Constitutional Conservative. He is self-described as desperately trying to understand why any sane or stable person, regardless of socioeconomic status would vote for a Democrat?