Who will jump first? The Russians already committed an act of war in the Crimea. Civilians have died in crossfires, and Russian troops have crossed the Ukrainian border. Things seem stable but could get out of hand at any moment. One civilian airliner has been shot down.
Iran has a new pen pal in the White House and there has been talk of opening an embassy again and the Iranians have been a tentative ally in the fight against the Islamic State but how well that good will, such as it is and what there is of it, will hold up against economic pressure remains to be seen.
Venezuela could destabilize the region with a civil war and while a direct military threat could be considered laughable, it is not too far out of the probability but would Columbia or Brazil sit by while they faced the chaos?
One fact remains, it takes money to successfully wage war, but that fact is influenced by interpretation of success, and belief in the outcome. Any one of those nations could believe that they have enough to gain leverage.
We can place our bets and see where the chips fall. Either this crisis will blow over or start World War III but either way for the moment, gas prices continue to fall, or temperatures in certain nations are rising to the boiling point.
The part that scares me is Tom Clancy’s predictions. He predicted the use of commercial aircraft in terror acts. He predicted the fall of the Soviet Union. He predicted the rise of a unifying Islamic Group.
Those were not made out as predictions but they are disturbingly presentiment for my tastes. Red Storm Rising started with a Soviet Oil Crisis. Let’s hope we can avoid the rest.
Oh, he also had Ebola in the United States. Coincidence?
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http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=A
http://watchdog.org/190567/oil-russia-iran-venezuela/
http://www.eia.gov/countries/index.cfm?view=production
http://www.eia.gov/countries/index.cfm?view=consumption
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