The Looming Divide: Could America Face Another Civil War? Part 1

“A house divided against itself cannot stand.” – Abraham Lincoln
“It is the duty of everyone to unite in the restoration of the country, and the reestablishment of peace & harmony.” – Robert E. Lee

The American populace is arguably the most politically divided it has been since 1861, and many have speculated whether a second civil war is likely—or even inevitable. The 2024 film Civil War explored this question through the lens of a group of journalists traveling from New York City to Washington, D.C., to cover the fighting. While the film’s portrayal of alliances was debatable, it sparked meaningful discussions on the topic.

Like the film, this article will not attempt to pinpoint the exact spark that could ignite a second American civil war. However, history suggests several possible catalysts worth considering. The assassination of a prominent political figure, nationwide partisan unrest, the weaponization of government, and secessionist movements could all serve as triggers. Additionally, one cannot discount the possibility of a foreign power instigating domestic conflict for its own geopolitical gain—after all, the U.S. has engaged in similar tactics abroad for decades.

The Shot Heard ‘Round the Nation

Had either of the two assassination attempts on President Trump during his 2024 campaign succeeded, it is almost certain that retaliatory political violence would have followed, possibly escalating into a nationwide conflict. Few other American politicians could provoke such a reaction, with the possible exception of former President Obama. However, a coordinated attack targeting multiple members of Congress from one party—such as during a baseball game—could ignite a similar chain of events, depending on public and media reactions.

Passion is the Mob of the Man

The nationwide Black Lives Matter (BLM) riots of 2020, the January 6 Capitol riot, the ongoing pro-Palestinian protests, and other social or cultural flashpoints all demonstrate how civil unrest can spiral into widespread violence. Throughout history, ideological movements—such as the Bolshevik and Cultural Revolutions or the Munich Putsch—have seen young, disenfranchised zealots willing to turn on their fellow citizens to seize control of the state.

For now, most domestic organized disruption groups have lost momentum and public support. However, the volatility of the current political climate means it is impossible to predict what event—be it another George Floyd incident, a contested election, or a new “social justice” cause—might reignite mass unrest.

Injustice Anywhere is a Threat to Justice Everywhere

The weaponization of government against political opponents often leads to resistance movements and radicalization. A population can only tolerate so much before it pushes back. Likewise, an ethnic or political “out-group” that perceives itself as marginalized and targeted by the ruling “in-group” will eventually rebel—especially if they believe violence is their only remaining option for addressing grievances.

The Right of Seceding from Intolerable Oppression

Many assume that secessionist movements died with the Confederacy in 1865 and will not resurface in the U.S. However, while a full-scale state secession is highly unlikely—despite the ambitions of governing bodies in places like California or Texas—regional separatism remains a possibility.

For instance, parts of eastern Oregon, Washington, and California have expressed a desire to break away and either form a 51st state or join Idaho, which aligns more closely with their political beliefs. If such movements gain traction, they could escalate into a regional dispute and potentially ignite a broader conflict. Moreover, growing tensions between state governments and the federal government—similar to those that preceded the Civil War—suggest that interstate friction could be a future battleground.

Soft Power and Malign Influence

Foreign governments have long used soft power to destabilize rival nations, often through information warfare designed to co-opt and radicalize social, cultural, and political movements. The U.S. has not been immune to such tactics. Given enough time and resources, these efforts could contribute to domestic unrest, potentially leading to violent conflict.

Russia and China, for example, routinely deploy social media “bot farms” to spread content designed to stoke division within the American populace, particularly during election cycles. However, their influence runs deeper.

Qatar—a known supporter of foreign terrorist organizations such as Hamas and the Taliban—has poured billions of dollars into U.S. universities since 2001. It is no coincidence that following Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack, there was a surge in pro-Palestinian protests across American college campuses. China, too, has invested heavily in American academia, with its influence readily apparent in multiple industries and sectors.

Other foreign actors—both adversaries and nominal allies—use a variety of tactics, including NGOs, grant funding, and media campaigns, to manipulate American politics. Some may dismiss the idea that campus protests could escalate into civil war. However, as recent history has shown, few anticipated that the death of a career criminal would result in billions of dollars in damages across multiple U.S. cities.

And Now We Take You to the Front Lines…

This article has examined potential triggers that could fracture the 249-year-old American republic, much as it nearly did 150 years ago. One would hope that Americans can maintain enough civility to prevent such a catastrophe, despite the anger, vitriol, and intolerance that now permeate both sides of the political spectrum.

In Part 2, we will explore what a second civil war might look like if the nation descends into armed conflict.

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Ben is a former U.S. Army Mountain Infantry Platoon Sergeant and served in domestic and overseas roles from 2001-2018, including, from 2003-2005, as a sniper section leader. Besides his military service, Ben worked on the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq’s protective security detail in various roles, and since 2018, he has also provided security consulting services for public and private sectors, including tactical training, physical and information security, executive protection, protective intelligence, risk management, insider threat mitigation, and anti-terrorism. He earned a B.A. and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies from American Military University, a graduate certificate in Cyber Security from Colorado State University and is currently in his second year of AMU’s Doctorate of Global Security program.

As the Voice of the Veteran Community, The Havok Journal seeks to publish a variety of perspectives on a number of sensitive subjects. Unless specifically noted otherwise, nothing we publish is an official point of view of The Havok Journal or any part of the U.S. government.