The Way Ukraine Wins Matters, Here’s Why

The historic ties and schisms between Russia and the USA have come into sharp focus in Ukraine. Yet, anyone who came of age in the last two decades would likely have little awareness of why the Russian invasion of Ukraine matters so much. 

When George W Bush declared his “axis of evil”, Russia was only in the shadows of the international power play. It saw the direction of foreign policy in the USA track towards the Middle East and China – the 20th-century nemesis in Moscow was barely on the radar. 

International watchers won’t have been surprised when Putin sent his forces over the Ukrainian border on February 24, 2022. When Crimea was annexed nearly eight years to the day, the international community didn’t react, leading to the bravado that took Russian troops on a road to Kyiv. 

It’s this broad context that means what Russia does in Ukraine matters. The war against Ukraine is important for European and Western security, for international refugees, for the cybersecurity community, and for the global community as a whole. Here’s how. 

The reemergence of NATO

As recently as 2020, the relevance of NATO on the global stage was being called into question. Fueled by President Trump’s disdain for the alliance, and unable to show its teeth during the annexation of Crimea, it seemed NATO no longer had a place on the world security stage. 

While the purpose of the organization is still to be tested, it has become vital to the efforts to support Ukraine in defending itself. Allied forces have donated billions of dollars of funding and equipment to the defending forces since Russian tanks rolled in and planes started to strike. 

It isn’t under the umbrella of NATO, yet the member nations are fully aware of the potential threat Putin poses to them. What was once seen as a sleeping beast, one that was more words and minimal action is now clearly an aggressor on its Western borders. 

Russia’s push to reclaim land and people it sees as historically its own has led to Finland joining the alliance in 2023, with Sweden and Bosnia and Herzegovina vying to join, along with Ukraine. 

The future direction of NATO will now be driven by the goal of preventing Russian territorial creep. The importance of fully funding the alliance and strategic arms placement is now in sharper focus than at any time since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Ukraine matters because it is making NATO appreciate where its threats are coming from. 

Resources can be available

Refugees and migrants have been a hot-button issue across the global West for decades. In the ten years from 2012, the number of asylum applications in Europe increased 3.5 times, fueled by instability in the Middle East and North Africa. 

For years, there has been increasing pressure on European nations, with land and sea arrivals causing problems for the nations on the periphery of EU territory. 

When the people seeking refuge and assistance came from Ukraine, European nations opened their doors. Many Ukrainians decided to stay, some internally displaced, but millions moved to the safety of their cultural peers. 

The top-five nations that have taken in Ukrainian refugees have received over 2.8 million people, namely:

• Germany;
• Poland;
• Czechia;
• The UK;
• Spain.

While Europe is – rightly – accepting and resettling Ukrainians, those from other unstable and dangerous parts of the world get less attention. It is important that the West takes care of people who can’t live safely where they are, and Ukraine has been important in demonstrating that the ability and willingness is still there. 

Long after the conflict in Ukraine concludes, we can hope that the efforts to look after displaced people can continue. 

Cyberwarfare has irreversibly changed

Even before Putin’s military pushed toward Kyiv, Russia was a clear and present danger online. Days before the invasion, the BBC reported that nearly three-quarters of all ransomware payments ended up in Russia – that’s around $400 million going to Russian online gangs. 

As the war raged on the ground, there was a plethora of cyberattacks in both directions in 2022. The Russian stock exchange was hacked, and Ukrainian ministries and government agencies were brought to a standstill. 

This was a new way of fighting a war. Coding and hacking skills that had been built up in both countries over the preceding years were flipped to the theatre of battle, with new attack vectors appearing online, linked to the gangs supporting each side. 

Indeed, third countries have been brought into the online war, expanding the realm of the conflict far beyond Ukrainian territory. In June 2022, the Lithuanian government and private websites were attacked, with Russia receiving the blame. Attacks against other Ukraine allies have continued well into 2023. 

Ukraine matters because we all have to live with this new paradigm. There is new ransomware online that everyone needs to protect themselves from – meaning we must try a VPN and become more aware of our online safety. 

Governments and major organizations now need to be much more aware of online threats, too. Affiliations with a warring country can lead to disastrous online hacks – Ukraine matters because we now know that wars can be virtual, and we have lessons to learn. 

The shift in global norms

Ukraine matters because it is part of a long stream of territorial breaches that cannot be resolved by post-World War 2 institutions. As a founding member of the United Nations and a permanent member of the Security Council, Russia holds enough cards to stall any progress it wants. 

Putin’s representatives on the security council used their veto to protect Assad during the height of the conflict in Syria. That same substantial muscle is being flexed now, with consistent and expected vetoes of every resolution condemning the situation in Ukraine.

The way Ukraine is resolved and returned to peace will have a major bearing on the future effectiveness of the Security Council. The general international rule of law is also at stake. If Russia can breach a neighbor’s borders without censure, it sends signals to other global outliers that action could be slow, and they may even find an ally on the council. 

How Ukraine wins matters

It is important for global stability that the Ukraine conflict is resolved. The peace and prosperity of Ukrainians is of course paramount, but there are much wider implications to the war, and it is the responsibility of those most likely to be affected to bring about peace.