by an anonymous former Special Forces officer
“…if times and affairs change, he is ruined if he does not change his course of action.” – Nicollo Machiavelli
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In an increasingly interdependent world, even slight perturbations can have global implications. Be it an earthquake and ensuing tsunami, turbulent uprisings in the Arab world, or fluctuating markets in a global economic crisis, the winds of fortune impact strategic decision-makers, who often find themselves ill-prepared to act. In Chapter 25 of The Prince, Nicollo Machiavelli presents a discourse on fortune and its influence on human affairs, asserting that fortune, if ignored, wreaks havoc on the best-laid plans.[1]
He further declares that like a woman, fortune must be subjugated and allow herself to be controlled through audacity.[2] At first reading, Machiavelli’s metaphor seems improbable, how possibly can one control that which is inherently unpredictable? However, after some consideration, Machiavelli’s deliberations on fortune revealed principles that I argue are relevant, if not critical, for the success of today’s strategic leaders. Machiavelli’s three factors for mitigating fortune, prudence in planning, understanding, and adaptability, and complacency avoidance, arguably provide just the framework needed for strategic leaders to confront the problems of today.
Strategic leaders must exercise prudent planning to allay the unexpected tides of fortune. Fortune can be described in either positive or negative terms depending on the circumstances, but one characteristic of fortune remains constant its unpredictability. Machiavelli describes fortune like a raging river, “everything flies before it, all yield to its violence, without being able in any way to withstand it.”[3] Although uncontrollable, Machiavelli argues that like a river, fortune can be adequately mitigated through proper planning and anticipation of the impacts.[4] The changing dimensions of fortune are not new phenomena; therefore, prudent strategic leaders prepare for events in order to diminish their shock, in much the same way disaster preparedness mitigates the potential devastation done through a natural calamity.
Furthermore, strategic leaders must understand the current situation and be adaptable. Prudent planning can aid to moderate the effects of chance, but in order to plan effectively, strategic leaders must have the vision to understand the current environment and be cognizant of when to exercise restraint or to act boldly. Machiavelli asserts that a clear understanding of the current situation is needed to make prudent decisions “all this arises from nothing else than whether or not they conform in their methods to the spirit of the times.”[5] The understanding of the “spirit of the time” allows the strategic leader to act with restraint or decisiveness when necessary. Without such understanding“the cautious man, when it is time to turn adventurous, does not know how to do it, hence he is ruined.” [6] Like the U.S. response to the recent uprisings in Egypt and Libya illustrate, counteracting fortune requires an astute understanding of the circumstances and flexibility to act in the manner most appropriate to the circumstances.
Finally, strategic leaders must avoid complacency. As advocated by Machiavelli, the strategic leader is impotent, if passivity of the leader, lack of motivation of the people, or complacency and apathy lead to inaction.[7] Strategic leaders who are wedded to “standard doctrines,” old paradigms, or place inordinate faith in past solutions proven successful, are ultimately doomed to miss opportunities and fail. Machiavelli writes “but if times and affairs change, he is ruined if he does not change his course of action.”[8] As with the struggle to resolve today’s global economic predicament, strategic leaders must be willing to go beyond acceptance of the status quo and evoke vigor in the will of the people to resolve the crisis.
Fortune has many facets; it is chance, luck, destiny, and even a resource.[9] Simply put, Machiavelli’s treatise on fortune offers practical realism to address today’s unpredictable world. Rather than be victims to strategic surprise, leaders who consider these straightforward principles are forearmed and better prepared to mitigate the impact of unexpected and unpredictable events.
This first appeared in The Havok Journal on September 8, 2021.
[1] Nicollo Machiavelli., The Prince (Florence, 1532), Chapter 25.
[2] Machiavelli., Chap.25.
[3] Machiavelli., Chap.25.
[4] Machiavelli., Chap.25.
[5] Machiavelli., Chap.25.
[6] Machiavelli., Chap.25.
[7] Machiavelli., Chap.25.
[8] Machiavelli., Chap.25.
[9] Airaksinen, Timo, Fortune is a Woman: Machiavelli on Luck and Virtue (Munich, 2009), 557.
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