The Looming Divide: Could America Face Another Civil War? Part 2

“Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure.” – Abraham Lincoln

“It is well that war is so terrible, else we would grow too fond of it.” – Robert E. Lee

Part 1 of this article explored potential catalysts that could plunge the U.S. into a second civil war: the assassination of a prominent political figure, widespread partisan unrest, government overreach, secessionist movements, or even the influence of a foreign adversary. Despite the deep ideological divide, most Americans still have enough faith in the founding principles of this constitutional republic to prevent an all-out domestic conflict.

Interestingly, veterans of foreign wars—despite often being the most prepared to survive such a scenario—are among those most likely to seek every possible means to avoid it. Having witnessed the horrors of combat firsthand, they have no desire to see war unfold in American cities, streets, and countryside. General Douglas MacArthur put it best: “The soldier above all others prays for peace, for it is the soldier who must suffer and bear the deepest wounds and scars of war.”

Like the 2024 film Civil War, this second part will explore how such a conflict might unfold. Who would be fighting whom? Where would the battle lines be drawn? What would bring it to an end, and what would reconstruction look like? These are just a few of the questions we will examine in this thought experiment.

Rural Red vs. Urban Blue

A second American civil war would almost certainly pit conservatives and liberals against one another over an ideological impasse. The fevered intensity of contemporary American politics has reached a dangerous crescendo, and violent clashes between opposing groups have already erupted. It may only be a matter of time before one side takes things too far, triggering a decisive event. Law enforcement and government at all levels would then be forced to respond, ensuring that both sides would feel wronged and justify further escalation in retaliation.

It is essential to note that conservatives overwhelmingly reside in rural areas, while liberals are concentrated in cities. Conservatives tend to be more self-reliant, engaging in activities such as hunting, fishing, and shooting, and fostering strong family and community bonds. Urban liberals, by contrast, often lack such survival skills and rely heavily on infrastructure, utilities, and supply chains. This stark contrast underscores the deep societal and cultural divisions and suggests how the conflict would likely unfold.

However, thousands of “purple” zones—mixed political regions—exist across the country. These areas would see some of the most brutal and indiscriminate fighting as neighbors turn against one another. Yet, even in today’s politically charged climate, many of these zones might simply ignore the conflict, continuing their daily lives as if nothing were happening. History has shown that only 10–20% of the population actively fought in the Revolutionary War and Civil War, with many choosing neutrality.

Logistics: The Decisive Factor

Control over critical infrastructure and supply chains would determine the war’s outcome—and likely in short order. Conservative forces could easily sever supply lines to urban centers by blocking roads and railways. The effectiveness of such blockades has already been demonstrated, from the 2022 Canadian trucker protests to European farmer protests from 2019–2024.

Cities rely on food and essential goods produced in rural areas, delivered primarily by conservative-leaning truck drivers. Additionally, fuel, power sources, and major freshwater bodies are largely located in conservative-controlled regions. Without food, fuel, or electricity, cities would descend into chaos within days. Desperate populations would turn predatory, and urban centers could collapse without a single shot being fired.

Veterans and the Fighting Force

As mentioned earlier, most veterans would avoid fighting unless absolutely necessary to protect their families, homes, and communities. However, some would seize the opportunity to relive their glory days, dusting off their ballistic vests and Hawaiian shirts. If the war revolved around a fundamental constitutional principle—one that veterans believe they swore an oath to defend—there could be a large-scale mobilization, which would not bode well for liberal forces.

While both ideological sides include veterans, conservatives significantly outnumber liberals among former service members. The same imbalance exists in the military and law enforcement, leading to fractured and disbanded units. These divisions would cause initial chaos in command structures and logistical operations, further complicating military and police involvement.

Foreign Influence and Intervention

A second American civil war would not unfold in isolation. During the Revolutionary War, foreign powers such as France, Spain, and the Netherlands aided the Continental Army, while German Hessian mercenaries fought for the British. During the Civil War, no foreign military directly intervened, though Britain and France supported the Confederacy due to their economic interests in cotton, while Russia sent warships to aid the Union by deterring European intervention.

In today’s geopolitical landscape, foreign involvement would be more complex. America’s primary rivals, Russia and China, would likely seek to prolong the conflict by supplying both sides through proxy forces. OPEC+ nations would exploit the situation by selling oil to both factions. European countries, meanwhile, would likely limit their role to diplomatic efforts and humanitarian aid, though—as seen in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War—their impact may be minimal.

Rebuilding After the War

When the fighting ceases, the challenge of reconstruction will be immense. The neutral “purple” zones will be pivotal in reuniting the country, yet lingering tribalism will ensure that feuds like the legendary Hatfields and McCoys play out across the nation for years to come.

If there is a clear victor, military districts or “pacification zones” will be necessary, as they were after the Civil War. However, if the war ends in a negotiated armistice, breakaway republics could emerge. Geographically isolated states such as Alaska and Hawaii might secede and establish independent governments.

Foreign relations and trade agreements would also require renegotiation, with the U.S. losing much of its previous influence. The dollar, having collapsed during the war, would likely be replaced as the global reserve currency—possibly by the Chinese yuan—making economic recovery even more difficult without foreign intervention (and the inevitable influence that comes with it).

Conclusion

Despite the heated political environment, the probability of a second civil war remains low—falling into the high-impact, low-probability category. However, as of early 2025, only months into Trump’s second presidency, numerous Democrat-controlled cities and states are openly resisting federal policies. This opposition could become the spark that ignites conflict between the federal government and defiant states.

Both parts of this article aimed to remain objective, recognizing that either ideological faction could be the instigator of such a war. Unlike the Civil War of the 19th century, today’s battle lines would be far less defined. We can only hope that this remains nothing more than a “What if?” scenario.

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Ben is a former U.S. Army Mountain Infantry Platoon Sergeant and served in domestic and overseas roles from 2001-2018, including, from 2003-2005, as a sniper section leader. Besides his military service, Ben worked on the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq’s protective security detail in various roles, and since 2018, he has also provided security consulting services for public and private sectors, including tactical training, physical and information security, executive protection, protective intelligence, risk management, insider threat mitigation, and anti-terrorism. He earned a B.A. and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies from American Military University, a graduate certificate in Cyber Security from Colorado State University and is currently in his second year of AMU’s Doctorate of Global Security program.

As the Voice of the Veteran Community, The Havok Journal seeks to publish a variety of perspectives on a number of sensitive subjects. Unless specifically noted otherwise, nothing we publish is an official point of view of The Havok Journal or any part of the U.S. government.