In order to understand the significance of the Shia and Sunni dynamic, one must look at the historical aspect of their constant fighting and competition in the Middle East and the world. The Sunni-Shia conflict has evolved over time, with various historical events and political developments contributing to its current manifestations. The original split between the two groups occurred in the 7th century over the question of who should succeed the Prophet Muhammad. Sunnis believed that leadership should be passed on through election, while Shiites believed it should be passed on through bloodline. (Holtmann 2014)
Presently, the conflict has taken on a more geopolitical dimension, with Sunni and Shia powers vying for influence and dominance in the Middle East. Sunni extremist groups, such as ISIS, have targeted Shia communities and holy sites, while Shia powers, such as Iran, have supported Shia militias and political groups in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. (Holtmann 2014)
There are also intra-Sunni and intra-Shia conflicts, with various factions and sub-groups within each sect competing for influence and power. Salafist fundamentalism has become a strong ideological alternative for many Sunni Muslims since the 1970s, while Shiites have consolidated their power through the establishment of a modern theological Shiite state in Iran and the creation of a formidable military sub-state force in Hezbollah. (Holtmann 2014)
The Sunni-Shia conflict remains a complex and multifaceted issue, with various historical, religious, and political factors contributing to its current manifestations.
For centuries, the Middle East has been a hotbed of geopolitical uncertainty and regional conflict due to the amount of violent extremist groups and tampering by the western world. What is truly remarkable is how collaboration and competition among these groups, particularly their shared opposition to Israel. There is an old saying that says, “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” takes on a reality as extremist groups craft strategic alliances and engage in combat together against a common adversary.
Let’s dive into the intricate dynamics of violent extremist competition and collaboration in the Middle East, with a specific focus on their collective efforts against Israel. We will explore the violent extremists that are currently engaged in conflict with Israel and discuss their rivalries as well as their allegiances when it comes time to fight Israel. Through analysis we will provide an understanding of the complex web of relationships that define the Middle East’s violent extremist groups.
The Sunni-Shia conflict has led to a competition for political and religious dominance in the Middle East, with Sunni-majority countries, such as Saudi Arabia, and Shia-majority Iran, vying for influence and power. (Holtmann 2014)
This competition has taken various forms, including proxy wars, political alliances, and support for sectarian militias and groups. Sunni-majority countries have formed coalitions to counter the influence of Shia-majority Iran, while Iran has supported Shia militias and political groups in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. (Holtmann 2014)
The competition between Sunni and Shia powers has also contributed to political and sectarian instability in the region, with sectarian divisions often shaping political alliances and power struggles. This has hindered efforts to achieve stability and consensus in countries with diverse sectarian populations. (Holtmann 2014)
For more than seventy years, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has significantly influenced the political landscape of the Middle East. The recent terror attack carried out by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent military response by Israel in Gaza, mark a pivotal moment in the ongoing trajectory of the conflict. This event has catalyzed a new phase in the efforts to address and resolve the conflict, signifying a turning point with long-lasting repercussions that are poised to reshape both Israeli and Palestinian, while also exerting a profound influence on the broader regional dynamics.
According to ACLED data there are at least 23 active armed groups involved in the fighting in the West Bank between October 2022 and September 2023. These groups include both newly established local groups and traditional factions such as Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades (AAMB).
Let’s explore two Sunni factions involved in the ongoing conflict with Israel. One of these groups, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), is a militant organization that originated in the late 1970s in Egypt. This Sunni Islamist group advocates for the establishment of an Islamic state in Palestine and adamantly opposes any peace talks with Israel. PIJ is designated as a terrorist entity by Israel, the United States, and the European Union. As per the information, PIJ has been significantly involved in the escalation of hostilities in the West Bank, offering support to at least nine newly emerged militant factions engaged in armed resistance against Israel. Additionally, PIJ has reportedly provided crucial backing to AAMB militants, potentially involving financial assistance for their procurement of arms from the black market. (ChatGPT Mehvar & Khdour, 2023)
The Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades (AAMB) represents a militant faction affiliated with Fatah, the Palestinian nationalist movement formed in 1959, which currently holds control over the Palestinian Authority (PA). AAMB originated from Tanzim, a militant wing within Fatah, established under the leadership of the late Arafat. Tanzim was formulated to counter the growing influence of Hamas at the grassroots level, following the adoption of violent resistance by non-PLO groups against Israel and in response to the newly established PA. Amid the Second Intifada, members of Fatah’s Tanzim subsequently formed AAMB—a coalition of localized, decentralized, and independent brigades, emerging in reaction to evolving political dynamics and heightened public backing for armed resistance. Despite efforts by the PA, led by Abbas, to disband and integrate AAMB militants into its security apparatus, the group has increasingly participated in a series of armed operations against Israel in recent years, underscoring the internal divisions within Fatah. (ChatGPT Mehvar & Khdour, 2023)
Let’s go over one of the most prominent Shia group in the Middle East, Hezbollah. My family is from southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah holds a lot of influence. Hezbollah emerged during the Lebanese civil war as a staunch advocate of the Palestinian cause and expanded its influence using kidnappings, hijackings, and violent acts. The group abducted numerous foreigners and utilized them as bargaining chips in intricate negotiations, often aligning its interests with those of Iran. It orchestrated attacks on U.S. targets in Lebanon using explosive-laden trucks, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of individuals both within and outside the country. Following numerous violent confrontations, Hezbollah succeeded in overshadowing Amal and established itself as the predominant force among Lebanon’s Shia supporters by the 1990s. (ChatGPT Hu, 2016)
During Israel’s occupation of Lebanese territory in the 1980s and 90s, Hezbollah executed a series of “self-martyrdom missions” targeting Israeli military installations within the southern security zone. In 1996, the Israeli military’s campaign led to the tragic loss of civilian lives at a United Nations base in Qana. (ChatGPT Hu, 2016) My family’s village is minutes away from that UN Base in Qana. The loss to civilian life was extremely tragic and there is a massive memorial there. One of my cousins is an orphan as a result. He was raised by his aunt and uncle since he is the only living male from that side of the family.
Hezbollah’s staunch resistance to Israeli aggression and occupation garnered substantial backing from the Lebanese populace, particularly in Shia-dominated areas. Its fighters asserted that they constituted the primary defense against Israeli encroachment and justified their possession of arms in defiance of a UN Security Council Resolution. However, Hezbollah’s popularity has experienced fluctuations over time, partly due to its connection with the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. (ChatGPT Hu, 2016)
When ISIS was fighting in Syria, Hezbollah sent a lot of reinforcements to assist the Assad regime with combating ISIS. I remember watching on Lebanese news, ISIS tried moving thousands of it’s operatives across the border into Lebanon. Hezbollah annihilated every operative that tried to infiltrate Lebanon. I don’t believe there is an ISIS presence in Lebanon as a result.
Analysis
My analysis of what’s happening in the Middle East is that the fighting is going to continue to escalate if Israel is taking this “scorched earth” approach in dealing with Hamas in Gaza. Instead of concentrating on Hamas itself, to date, according to ACLED data, 23,000 civilians have been killed in Gaza. For each one of those civilians is new terrorists that have been creating. When I watch Arab news and all the Arab media are saying the same message. Most denounce Hamas’s operation but completely denounce Israel’s response. Israel’s tactics has created even more enemies in the Arab world.
The continued use of excessive force and disregard for civilian lives in the Middle East can have significant long-term implications. Here are some potential consequences:
- Escalation of violence: When excessive force is employed and civilian lives are disregarded, it often leads to a cycle of retaliation and revenge. This can result in an escalation of violence and further perpetuate the conflict. The loss of innocent lives can fuel anger, resentment, and a desire for vengeance among affected communities, leading to a never-ending cycle of violence.
- Radicalization and recruitment: The disregard for civilian lives can create a breeding ground for radicalization and recruitment of individuals who have witnessed or experienced the consequences of such actions. The loss of loved ones and the feeling of injustice can drive some individuals towards extremist ideologies and militant groups, seeing violence as the only means to seek justice or revenge.
- Destabilization of the region: Excessive force and civilian casualties can lead to the destabilization of the entire region. The grievances and anger resulting from these actions can spill over into neighboring countries and contribute to the spread of conflict. This can lead to increased tensions, the displacement of populations, and the emergence of various armed factions, further complicating efforts to achieve stability and peace.
- Strained diplomatic relations: The use of excessive force and the disregard for civilian lives can strain diplomatic relations between involved parties and the international community. It can create a perception of aggression and human rights violations, leading to condemnation from global actors. This can limit the potential for diplomatic negotiations and hamper efforts to find peaceful resolutions to conflicts.
- Humanitarian crisis: The continued use of excessive force and the resulting civilian casualties can exacerbate the already dire humanitarian situation in the region. It can lead to widespread displacement, destruction of infrastructure, and limited access to essential services such as healthcare, education, and clean water. This, in turn, can create a humanitarian crisis with long-lasting consequences for the affected populations.
To mitigate these long-term implications, it is crucial for all parties involved to prioritize the protection of civilian lives, adhere to international humanitarian laws, and actively seek peaceful and diplomatic solutions to conflicts. Efforts should be made to address the root causes of the conflicts, promote dialogue and understanding, and work towards sustainable peace and stability in the region.
References
Holtmann, P. (2014). A Primer to the Sunni-Shia Conflict. Perspectives on Terrorism, 8(1), 142-145.
Mehvar, A., & Khdour, N. (2023). The Resurgence of Armed Groups in the West Bank and Their Connections to Gaza. https://acleddata.com/2023/12/14/the-resurgence-of-armed-groups-in-the-west-bank-and-their-connections-to-gaza/
Hu, Z. (2016, December). The history of Hezbollah, from Israel to Syria. Al-Jazeera. https://www.slps.org/cms/lib/MO01001157/Centricity/Domain/9446/The%20history%20of%20Hezbollah%20from%20Israel%20to%20Syria%20_%20Lebanon%20News%20_%20Al%20Jazeera.pdf
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Ayman Kafel is the founder and owner of Hybrid Wolf Blue Line Strategies, LLC. A veteran-owned training and consulting company for Law Enforcement officers and agencies. He combines his military and law enforcement experience to bring much-needed cutting-edge training to the law enforcement profession.
Ayman is not only an active police officer but also a law enforcement instructor and has taught across the East Coast of the United States. He offers a wide variety of training, such as advanced patrol tactics, mechanical breaching courses, designated marksman, and Human Performance under duress.
In addition, Ayman is an Army Combat Veteran who was deployed during Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2005. He became a police officer in 2007 after 8 years of service in the Army
Ayman has seen the ugliness of war and evil in the world. He survived two civil wars prior to immigrating to the United States in the late eighties.
His current position is the commander of his department’s Problem-Oriented Policing Unit. He leads a team of investigators that employs unconventional methods and Special Forces philosophy in achieving specific objectives in the communities he serves. These unconventional methods range from winning hearts and minds to specific strategic law enforcement actions to arrest and prosecute those who are the root cause of various crimes.
To reach Ayman, feel free to email him at hwbluelinestrategies@gmail.com
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