Resurgence of Militant Groups and the Anticipated Surge of Terrorism: Implications for Afghanistan and South Asia

Since the fall of Afghanistan in 2021, I and many combat veterans that I know anticipated the resurgence of Al-Qaeda and other militant/terrorist groups that use Afghanistan as their training grounds and headquarters.

I read this report, titled “Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS): The Nucleus of Jihad in South Asia” by The Soufan Center. According to the reading, AQIS has successfully rewritten the global jihadist narrative from a regional perspective, allowing its affiliates to focus on regional political agendas and gain wider domestic support. This strategy enables AQIS to exploit local populations more interested in addressing domestic issues than global jihad. AQIS has also expanded its influence in various countries in South Asia, such as Bangladesh, by building new networks and collaborating with local jihadi groups. This approach allows AQIS to diversify its target set and achieve its goals by leveraging local resources and alliances. The drawdown of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, coupled with AQIS embedding fighters with the Afghan Taliban, creates a potential surge in al-Qaeda’s operational capabilities throughout South Asia. This situation underscores the importance of regional security, especially in light of China’s economic interests in the region. These factors collectively contribute to making the subcontinent a prime region for AQIS to operate and expand its influence.  (The Soufan Center, 2019).

In another report titled, “Growing Threat of the Islamic State in Afghanistan and South Asia”, written by Abdul Sayed and Tore Refslund Hamming, According to the report, the Islamic State has been expanding its presence in South Asia, particularly through its affiliate, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). While ISKP has faced less counter-terrorism pressure since US troops left Afghanistan, it is still unclear whether Islamic State affiliates and networks in the region pose a terrorism threat to the West. The report notes that so far, Islamic State-related terrorism in the West has been the product of sympathizers acting on their own, or it has involved either operatives trained in Syria or Iraq or virtual planners based in that region. (Sayed & Hamming, 2023)

ISKP initially emerged as a Pakistani-dominated network but soon shifted its focus to Afghanistan. The group transitioned from a strategy of controlling territory to conducting urban warfare in Afghanistan. ISKP’s initial strategy involved gaining and consolidating territory to implement its version of a sharia system. However, after being forced to relinquish control of its territory in 2019, ISKP made a strategic decision to focus on urban warfare. This shift in strategy has allowed ISKP to demonstrate its ability to carry out numerous attacks, including high-profile incidents like the one in August 2021 that resulted in the deaths of 170 Afghans and 13 US service members. I do recall listening to congressional testimony from the Soldiers and Marines that were on the ground there and how upsetting it was to learn that the incident could have been avoided but due to the inability of the leadership to make a decision, our US Service Members were killed that day as well as scores of Afghans.

ISKP’s current strategies in the region include engaging in urban warfare, challenging the Taliban’s governance efforts, and seeking to broaden its geographic scope beyond its core territories of Afghanistan and Pakistan to include other South Asian countries like India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka.

This led me down a path of competition in Afghanistan between the Tabilan ISKP and Al-Qaeda. The competition between ISKP, the Taliban, and other militant groups poses a significant risk of further instability in the region. The report emphasizes that the rivalry between these groups has the potential to escalate violence, undermine governance efforts, and perpetuate conflict in Afghanistan and South Asia. Additionally, the competition may lead to power struggles, territorial disputes, and increased insecurity, which could have far-reaching implications for regional stability and security.

Now, due to the competition between all these groups, the region is going to increasingly lose stability. The frequency of attacks between all these groups is going to cause a lot of civilians to get caught in the crossfire as a result. The readings and my analysis regarding the resurgence of Al-Qaeda, the expansion of ISKP, and the evolving dynamics of militant groups in Afghanistan and South Asia show a substantial risk of increased terrorism and instability in the region.

The shift in strategies by these groups, particularly ISKP’s adaptation to urban warfare and AQIS’s regional focus, presents a complex picture for the future. The competition between these entities not only heightens the potential for violence but also heightens the risk for civilians who may get caught in the crossfire of these escalating conflicts. Consequently, the anticipated resurgence of terrorism, more so than political violence, necessitates greater attention to regional security and stability. As these groups compete for power and influence, the ripple effects may extend well beyond Afghanistan, with potential repercussions for the broader South Asian region. Therefore, proactive and strategic measures are imperative to mitigate the unfolding threats and minimize the impact on civilian populations in the face of these escalating dynamics.

References: 

Sayed, A., & Hamming, T. R. (2023). Growing Threat of the Islamic State in Afghanistan and South Asia (Special Report No. 520). United States Institute of Peace.

The Soufan Center. (2019). Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent: The Nucleus of Jihad in South Asia.

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Ayman Kafel is the founder and owner of Hybrid Wolf Blue Line Strategies, LLC. A veteran-owned training and consulting company for Law Enforcement officers and agencies. He combines his military and law enforcement experience to bring much-needed cutting-edge training to the law enforcement profession. 

Ayman is not only an active police officer but also a law enforcement instructor and has taught across the East Coast of the United States. He offers a wide variety of training, such as advanced patrol tactics, mechanical breaching courses, designated marksman, and Human Performance under duress. 

In addition, Ayman is an Army Combat Veteran who was deployed during Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2005. He became a police officer in 2007 after 8 years of service in the Army

Ayman has seen the ugliness of war and evil in the world. He survived two civil wars prior to immigrating to the United States in the late eighties.

His current position is the commander of his department’s Problem-Oriented Policing Unit. He leads a team of investigators that employs unconventional methods and Special Forces philosophy in achieving specific objectives in the communities he serves. These unconventional methods range from winning hearts and minds to specific strategic law enforcement actions to arrest and prosecute those who are the root cause of various crimes.

To reach Ayman, feel free to email him at hwbluelinestrategies@gmail.com

As the Voice of the Veteran Community, The Havok Journal seeks to publish a variety of perspectives on a number of sensitive subjects. Unless specifically noted otherwise, nothing we publish is an official point of view of The Havok Journal or any part of the U.S. government.