If the Iranian Regime Falls: Three Scenarios the World Must Prepare For

When authoritarian regimes collapse, the moment itself often feels decisive. Flags fall. Statues are pulled down. Headlines declare the dawn of a new era. What follows, however, is almost never orderly—and never guaranteed to be better.

If Iran’s ruling clerical regime is approaching a breaking point, the critical question is not simply whether it falls, but what replaces it. For U.S. policymakers and military planners, preparing for the aftermath matters far more than speculating about the fall itself.

There are three broad scenarios worth serious consideration. None are clean. All carry risk.

---

Scenario One: Managed Transition and Fragile Reform

This is the outcome many outside observers hope for—and the one history delivers least often.

In this scenario, internal fractures within Iran’s political elite produce a negotiated transition. Elements of the security services refuse to continue mass repression. Clerical authority weakens. A provisional government emerges, potentially drawing from reformist politicians, technocrats, and civil society leaders already inside the system.

Such a transition would likely be uneven, slow, and contested, but it would preserve core state institutions—ministries, borders, energy infrastructure, and command-and-control mechanisms.

For the United States and its allies, this scenario presents opportunity:

• Reduced regional aggression as Tehran focuses inward
• Potential reentry into diplomatic frameworks, including nuclear negotiations
• Gradual reintegration into the global economy, easing humanitarian pressure

The risks, however, are substantial. Reformist governments born of upheaval are often weak. Hardline remnants would remain embedded in the military, intelligence services, and paramilitary organizations. Any misstep could provoke a backlash or coup.

This is not a victory lap scenario. It is a long, unstable walk.

---

Scenario Two: Fragmentation and Prolonged Internal Conflict

This is the most dangerous—and historically common—outcome.

If the regime collapses rapidly without a coherent successor, Iran could fracture along political, ethnic, and factional lines. Power would devolve to competing centers: elements of the Revolutionary Guard, regional authorities, militias, and ideological factions all vying for control.

Iran is not Iraq or Syria—but it is not immune to fragmentation.

In this scenario:

• Central authority collapses unevenly
• Border regions become contested, affecting Iraq, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan
• Weapons stockpiles, including advanced missiles and nuclear-related materials, become a primary concern

For U.S. and global security, this scenario is a nightmare.

Refugee flows would increase dramatically. Proxy groups once controlled by Tehran could operate autonomously—or violently compete with one another. External powers would be tempted to intervene, turning Iran into a geopolitical battleground rather than a sovereign state.

This is the scenario military planners quietly worry about most: not because it is dramatic, but because it is hard to stop once it begins.

---

Scenario Three: Hardline Resurgence Under a New Banner

Revolutions do not always weaken authoritarianism. Sometimes they refine it.

In this scenario, the current clerical leadership falls or is sidelined—but is replaced not by reformers, but by a more overtly militarized regime, possibly dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or an even more nationalist authoritarian movement.

The rhetoric would change. The structure might look different. The repression would remain.

This outcome could be marketed domestically as “saving the nation” from chaos and foreign interference. Internationally, it would likely be framed as a reset—an Iran less religiously ideological, but more aggressively nationalist.

For the United States, this scenario offers clarity without relief:

• The adversary remains intact
• Regional proxy conflicts continue
• Nuclear ambitions likely accelerate, not recede

While this scenario avoids state collapse, it risks entrenching a harder, more disciplined adversary—one shaped by lessons learned from unrest rather than weakened by it.

---

What the United States Should Be Doing Now

Regardless of which scenario unfolds, the window for preparation is now—not after events force reaction.

At a minimum, the U.S. and its allies should:

• Expand intelligence collection focused on internal Iranian power dynamics
• Coordinate closely with regional partners on refugee, border, and security contingencies
• Prepare humanitarian response plans that bypass regime actors when possible
• Avoid premature declarations that could delegitimize genuine domestic movements

Above all, Washington must resist the temptation to view regime change as an outcome rather than a process.

History punishes that mistake.

---

Final Thoughts

The possible collapse of Iran’s current regime would represent one of the most consequential geopolitical events of the last half-century. It could reshape the Middle East, alter great-power competition, and redefine global security calculations.

But collapse is not resolution.

Whether Iran emerges freer, fractured, or further hardened will depend not just on what happens in Tehran—but on how carefully external powers respond when uncertainty is highest.

The next chapter will be written quickly.

The consequences will last for decades.

_____________________________

Charles served over 27 years in the US Army, which included seven combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan with various Special Operations Forces units and two stints as an instructor at the United States Military Academy at West Point. He also completed operational tours in Egypt, the Philippines, and the Republic of Korea and earned a Doctor of Business Administration from Temple University as well as a Master of Arts in International Relations from Yale University. He is the owner of The Havok Journal, and the views expressed herein are his own and do not reflect those of the US Government or any other person or entity.

As the Voice of the Veteran Community, The Havok Journal seeks to publish a variety of perspectives on a number of sensitive subjects. Unless specifically noted otherwise, nothing we publish is an official point of view of The Havok Journal or any part of the U.S. government.